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Reveille Reconnaissance Blog

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In The News – Thursday, August 28th Edition
Posted Aug 28 2014 8:00AM
  • This phone app will let you check to see if the manufacturer of a product leans toward the Republicans or Democrats. You just scan the bar code and it tells you the percentage of contributions made to each party. This could be very helpful. I’d hate to accidentally buy some Democrat baked beans or shaving cream.

  • I’ve mentioned Kickstarter projects from time to time and have personally invested in a few. This tricked out cooler is apparently the most funded project of all time on Kickstarter. It may be the ultimate tailgate party cooler. It’s even got a built in blender for those frozen Margaritas.

  • I commented in this morning’s Reveille about Ed Yardeni’s bullish outlook being confirmed by rising consumer confidence. In his Morning Briefing, he had some bullet points that caught my eye because I am playing on the same sheet of music. He begins with 2015 by 2015? Catchy, but probably too conservative. He suggests the bull is running ahead of schedule, which my work also indicates. I don’t consider it worrisome, however, and apparently neither does Dr. Yardeni. His math for 2015 is E=$140, P/E=16.5 and P=2310. Not bad. He makes the point that “the longer the expected economic expansion, the higher the P/E.” I would also point out that there is a clear relationship between high P/E’s and low inflation. As Ed points out, this bull market is currently the fifth-longest of the 44 we’ve seen since 1928. I would argue that there is a strong probability is will be the longest before it comes to an end. I addressed that point in this morning’s Reveille.

  • Here’s an interesting map that shows the number of instant background checks per 100 capita. If I were a stick-up guy or carjacker looking for somewhere to set up shop, I’d avoid Kentucky unless I wanted to get lead poisoning. Texas is fairly low on the scale, but that’s probably because everyone older than 12 already has a concealed carry permit. Illinois is coming on strong, too.

  • Here’s a very good explanation of “tax inversion” and the reasons behind it. “The argument is even weaker for corporate taxation; it boils down to ‘the police kept people from sacking your first headquarters, so therefore you owe us 35 percent of everything you make, forever.’ Loan sharks and protection rackets offer more reasonable terms than this.”

  • Here are two bears that think we could get a 50-60% correction. Would it be unkind of me to mention that they’ve made this call before? Ms. Doolittle called for a 50% correction in February 2012. Wonder how that worked out for her? We’re looking at the same charts and I believe I’ll stick with my interpretation.